Qualitative Analysis of International Student Arrivals

Government arrival data show international student arrivals on visas fell 28.5% in July 2025 vs July 2024 (106, 993 → 76, 519). That drop is concentrated in new arrivals and is largest for students from India (-46.4%) and China (-25.6%), according to ADIS/I‑94 numbers reported by the U.S. International Trade Administration (see the original report: www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2025/08/21/immigration-data-show-steep-decline-in-arriving-international-students/).

• Why researchers care: July/August arrivals map to new‑student enrollment for Fall 2025, qualitative signals now predict yield, deferral reasons and regional sentiment.
• Payoff: a targeted qualitative analysis (surveys + interviews + social listening) converts the numeric decline into specific operational fixes for recruitment, onboarding and communications.

The counts come from ADIS/I‑94 arrivals data compiled by U.S. Customs and Border Protection and reported by the U.S. International Trade Administration; figures are listed as preliminary and exclude Canada and Mexico.

Operational note: new international students typically arrive up to 30 days before program start, so July and early August arrivals are the clearest early indicator of first‑time enrollments for Fall 2025. Year‑to‑date numbers (Jan–Jul) show a smaller decline, which can hide a sharp fall in new admits that will surface in the late‑summer window.

Context from the reporting: policy changes (visa interview suspensions, travel bans, OPT threats and university investigations) are cited by educators as drivers of the drop; qualitative work is required to separate policy fear from logistical or financial reasons.

Supporting source on I‑94 methodology: www.trade.gov/i-94-arrivals-program

• 1) Pull I‑94 ADIS counts and admissions/yield spreadsheets (filter July/August cohorts).
• 2) Run targeted surveys to admitted international students and deferred applicants (open‑ended + priority picklists).
• 3) Conduct 20–40 semi‑structured interviews across the largest sending countries (India, China, Vietnam, Philippines, S. Korea, Taiwan).
• 4) Scrape public social channels and student forums for timing‑related complaints and visa anecdotes.
• 5) Transcribe and translate interviews; import everything into Evidano and apply an initial codebook.
• 6) Run thematic frequency and cross‑segment analyses, validate with manual spot checks and inter‑coder review.
• 7) Deliver a one‑page decision memo with top 3 interventions (e.g., visa application support, OPT clarity campaign, targeted financial aid) and supporting quotes.

The July 2025 arrival shortfall (‑28.5% year‑over‑year; India ‑46.4%) is numeric evidence of a likely Fall enrollment shock, but numbers alone don’t tell you which interventions will move yield. A focused qualitative analysis converts arrival declines into prioritized, country‑specific actions for admissions, policy and product teams.

Ready to run this pipeline on your own data? See a reproducible template and try the end‑to‑end workflow at www.evidano.com, ingest spreadsheets, transcripts and social data, run thematic and cross‑segment analyses, and deliver stakeholder‑ready reports in days.